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JANUARY 22,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET:

BEST EXCUSE OF 2016 – From The Hill:   The State Department on Friday sought to delay its final release of emails from Hillary Clinton’s personal server, blaming a massive snowstorm hitting Washington as well as an internal “oversight.”  In a court filing, the department asked a federal court to delay by a month the Jan. 29 deadline for it to release the last batch of roughly 55,000 pages of Clinton’s emails believed to be work-related.   A month?  Really?  It takes that much time to clear the snow from the State Department's driveway?  Or is State stalling, hoping Hillary seals the nomination before the emails are delivered? 

SERVICE AT THE TOMB OF THE UNKNOWNS – From The Hill:   "These guys will be out in the snow, no matter what," said Major Russell Fox, a spokesman for the Army's Old Guard, according to ABC News.   Tomb Sentinels from the Army's 3rd Infantry Regiment's Old Guard have guarded the memorial — regardless of the weather — for 24 hours a day, 365 days a year since April 6, 1948, ABC reported.  "A lot of the guys are looking forward to this [storm] and kind of excited about it," Fox added.  Fox said the soldiers will be shoveling snow from the plaza so it will not impede their duty.  And we have college kids on full scholarship who go to pieces of someone says something they disagree with. 

FADING? – Is Hillary Clinton starting to crack?  From the Guardian:   Hillary Clinton left her audience cold in Iowa City on Thursday night, after she spoke for less than five minutes to a crowd of more than a thousand people, some of whom had lined up for more than an hour to see her.  After a day marred by a new poll showing Bernie Sanders leading her by eight points in Iowa, Clinton might have been expected to go for broke during a rally at the University of Iowa, which featured a performance by popstar Demi Lovato.  But Clinton did not refer to the Vermont senator, or much else, in her speech. The lack of length and substance of her address appeared to upset some in the crowd.  One gets the feeling of crisis in the Clinton campaign.  She's fading in the polls, and the FBI report is to come.  And please notice that the White House isn't lifting a finger to help her.

ANOTHER HOSTAGE – From Fox:   North Korea said Friday that it had arrested an American college student for allegedly committing "anti-state" acts.  The report by Pyongyang's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) identified the person as Otto Frederick Warmbier, a student at the University of Virginia. It claimed that he entered the North as a tourist with a plot to undermine unity among the North Koreans. It said Warmbier has links to the U.S. government.    The old trumped-up spy charge routine.  I wonder what they want in exchange for this boy.  They're dealing with Kerry, so they'll probably get it.

January 22, 2016       Permalink

THE EDITION – AT 10:47 A.M. ET:  Much screaming and yelling this morning about a stunning new edition of National Review, the conservative stalwart publication, called "Against Trump."  A number of conservative writers argue against nomination of the Republican frontrunner.  The Republican National Committee is not amused.  From ABC News:

National Review will no longer be hosting a GOP debate in February after the RNC "disinvited" the conservative publication, the magazine's publisher said.

The news comes on the heels of a harsh cover story from National Review, penned by 21 conservative columnists, calling Donald Trump a “menace to American Conservatism,” to which Trump and the RNC fired back.

"National Review is a dying paper, it’s got -- its circulation is way down. Not very many people read it anymore. I mean, people don’t even think about the National Review, so I guess they want to get a little publicity, but that’s a dying paper,” Trump said Thursday night, speaking at the Outdoor Channel awards show, which includes the annual “Shot Show."

"Donald Trump is a menace to American conservatism who would take the work of generations and trample it underfoot in behalf of a populism as heedless and crude as the Donald himself,” National Review’s cover story out Friday reads.

Trump says, though, that the GOP is beginning to accept him. "I think they are warming up. I want to be honest, I have received so many phone calls from people that you would call 'establishment,' from people -- generally speaking, conservative Republicans that want to come in our team,” Trump added.

And he may be right, as National Review publisher Jack Fowler wrote Thursday that his publication was being stripped of its hosting duties for a GOP debate with CNN in late February.

"Tonight, a top official with the RNC called me to say that National Review was being disinvited. The reason: Our 'Against Trump' editorial and symposium. We expected this was coming. Small price to pay for speaking the truth about The Donald," Fowler wrote.

COMMENT:  I wish someone would remember that we have to run against the Democrats at some point.  The GOP is tearing itself apart again. 

As for "Against Trump," here is the NRO link.  You decide.  Many of the arguments made against Trump, that he's an egotistical opportunist, and no real conservative, ring true.  On the other hand, he's shown himself to be a political master, at least in nailing down his base. 

The National Review edition has the feel of a "stop" movement.  There was "stop Reagan," "stop Romney," stop whoever is ahead.  Those movements rarely work.  However, Trump is a different animal.  He has no real affiliation with the Republican Party, and his negatives, outside his base, are extraordinarily high.  Also, the GOP has alternative nominees with fine records.

With Trump under fire and Hillary possibly under indictment, this is turning into one of the most exciting presidential years of our era.

January 22, 2016       Permalink

STRIKING BACK – AT 10:14 A.M. ET:  As readers know, there's a big to-do in Hollywood over the fact that there were no black nominees in the major Oscar categories this year, for the second year in a row.  Some people are boycotting the Oscars as a result.

There's now a backlash from major Hollywood figures, outraged that cries of racism are being directed at people who are simply making an artistic choice in their voting, and who have voted for minority candidates regularly.  From Hollywood Reporter:   

Gerald Molen, a voting member of the Academy who earned a best picture Oscar for producing Schindler's List, has some very choice words for the "spoiled brats" who are crying racism over the lack of diversity in the nominations this time around.

"There is no racism except for those who create an issue. That is the worst kind. Using such an ugly way of complaining," Molen told The Hollywood Reporter on Thursday.

So far, Spike Lee, Michael Moore, Jada Pinkett Smith and her husband Will Smith have said they will not attend the Oscars because all of the 20 acting nominations went to white actors.

"The idea of a boycott is ridiculous," Molen said. "Are their noses bent out of shape by the award nominations? Of course. That is normal in a town of egos and red carpet desires. While there were many performances of note, not all my choices for 'best' in the various categories have been realized."

Molen revealed that Steven Spielberg's Bridge of Spies got his vote for best film as he thought the film was "masterful," and that "[s]adly that placed a lot of other films in second place, but there can only be one." The veteran producer said he at least had some sympathy for Will Smith, because he gave a worthy performance in Concussion.

"But even then it is not like he has been ignored or overlooked in the past. I understand his disappointment but see no prejudice or racism in his not making it. Who knows, maybe he lost by one vote," said Molen. "I say to all my co-members: 'stop acting like spoiled brats. Look to the next awards show for recognition – if you deserve it'."

COMMENT:  Molen, one of the sane and mature people of the industry, is speaking wisely.  We've written about this here before.  If you start "diversity" programs they must include representatives of more than one group.  Then others will come forward.  African Americans, who are leading the boycott, may actually find that diversity programs will put them at a disadvantage because of the number of groups that will become involved.

Work hard.  Do good work.  It will pay off.

January 22, 2016       Permalink

CLOSING IN – AT 9:50 A.M. ET:  Former Republican Attorney General Michael Mukasey weighs in on the Hillary Clinton FBI probe, with a grim analysis.  From The Wall Street Journal: 

While the State Department and intelligence agencies finish picking through messages recovered from the private email server Hillary Clinton used to conduct public business as secretary of state, the contents of the periodic document dumps have become increasingly sensitive. State has been referring any email that appears to contain sensitive information for further consideration by the agency with jurisdiction over the relevant data. Thus the most problematic emails are dribbling out last.

As the number of disclosed classified messages from Mrs. Clinton’s server has climbed above 1,300, her explanations have come to look increasingly improvisational and contrived. Recall that last summer—even after abandoning the claim that she maintained a private email account for convenience and because she was too busy solving the world’s problems to navigate the intricacies of a government account—she insisted that, “I did not send classified information and I did not receive any material that was marked or designated classified, which is the way you know that something is.”

When asked whether she had her server “wiped,” she assumed an air of grandmotherly befuddlement: “What, like with a cloth or something?” she said. “I don’t know how it works digitally at all.”

The current news, reported in the Journal and elsewhere, is that her server contained information at the highest level of classification, known as SAP, or Special Access Program. This is a level so high that even the inspector general for the intelligence community who reported the discovery did not initially have clearance to examine it.

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  It comes from a logical person who was at the top of the American legal system.  Hillary is in trouble. 

I recall Nixon's vice president, the less-than-stellar Spiro Agnew, saying, in similar circumstances, that he would not resign if indicted.  He was indicted.  He resigned.  It is inconceivable that Clinton, if indicted, could continue her campaign.  The arrogance alone would sink her.

Joe Biden, get your pants pressed.  Your party may need you.

January 22,  2016    Permalink

JANUARY 21,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET:

BERNIE BURNS HILLARY – From The Hill:   Bernie Sanders has overtaken Hillary Clinton in Iowa just 10 days before the caucuses there, according to a new poll.  A CNN-ORC poll released on Thursday found Sanders receiving 51 percent support in Iowa to Clinton's 43 percent. Clinton led by 18 points in the December version of the poll.  But among Iowans who participated in the 2008 caucuses, the survey found, Clinton leads Sanders 55 percent to 38 percent.  They just don't like Hillary, and, if the FBI doesn't like her, she's toast.

AND AGAIN – From channelnewsasia:  MOGADISHU: At least 19 people were killed when Somalia's Islamist Al Shabaab militants detonated a bomb before storming a popular seaside restaurant in the capital Mogadishu late on Thursday (Jan 21), police said after the operation ended at 3am.  "They killed nearly 20 people, including women and children," Somali police officer Mohamed Abdirahman said, describing it as a "barbaric and brutal attack against innocent civilians".  After a huge explosion, five gunmen burst into the restaurant on Thursday evening as diners were sitting down for their evening meal.  I think we vastly underestimate the potential for a sustained terror drive in the United States.  I don't think Bernie Sanders has the answer. 

KNUCKLING UNDER – From the L.A. Times:  The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will weigh new rules intended to encourage more diversity among its membership and its nominations, The Times has learned.  The academy's 51-member Board of Governors has added the diversity issue to the agenda for its regularly scheduled meeting Tuesday night in response to an outcry over an all-white slate of acting nominees for the second year in a row, according to a person briefed on the matter.  Among the options the board could choose are expanding the number of films in the best picture category to 10 every year, expanding the number of acting nominees in each category and changing the way the academy invites new members by allowing prospective members to put themselves forward, rather than waiting to be asked.  What happens when another group insists on being represented among the nominees?  Will Hollywood gather 'round Hispanics?  Asians?  Older women?  There is no fair way to increase minority nominations.  Minorities will begin to resent each other.  Good movies well cast will eventually result in more diversity, but any gimmick will reduce the value of the Oscar. 

January 21,  2016     Permalink

DEFIANCE! – AT 10:41 A.M. ET:  Can it be?  Do we see some spine in an American college?  I think we might.  From Daily Caller: 

Oberlin College’s president released a statement refusing to even consider a 14-page list of demands submitted by student activists, one of the most significant shows of defiance in the past few months to a wave of intense campus activism.

The list of demands at Oberlin, released in mid-December, is one of the most extreme seen at any college in the past two months. Among other things, the list demands the firing of several school employees, creation of segregated black-only safe spaces, a school stipend for protest leaders, and the creation of a bridge program to educate released convicts at the school. The list’s authors are anonymous, but several hundred students signed a Google Doc endorsing it.

Now, over a month later, Oberlin president Marvin Krislov has responded with a harsh tone. In his response, Krislov says the tone of the demands is utterly unacceptable, even if the document raises some valid concerns. As a result, he simply refused to directly engage with any of the list’s demands.

“Some of the challenges outlined in the document resonate with me and many members of our community, including our trustees,” Krislov says. “However, some of the solutions it proposes are deeply troubling. I will not respond directly to any document that explicitly rejects the notion of collaborative engagement. Many of its demands contravene principles of shared governance. And it contains personal attacks on a number of faculty and staff members who are dedicated and valued members of this community.”

It remains to be seen what the response, if any, will be from those who created the demands. In the original document, they want any refusal will provoke a dramatic response.

COMMENT:   It also remains to be seen how long this courageous president will last.  Oberlin is one of the most liberal schools in the country.  There is a hard core of faculty and student nut jobs who might not take kindly to a discussion above the reform-school level.  We await further bulletins.

January 21, 2016       Permalink

TELLING IT LIKE IT IS – AT 9:19 A.M. ET:   It's turning out that some of Obama's sharpest critics are those who have worked for him.  What we're seeing is a petty little man whose ego vastly exceeds his ability.   From Daily Caller: 

Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who served during the Obama administration, has turned into a harsh critic of the president, saying that Barack Obama always thinks he’s the smartest person in the room.

Gates also bashed Obama for bringing on advisers who do little else but constantly agree with his proposals, fostering a group-think environment where dissenting opinion essentially does not exist, The Free Beacon reports. In other words, there are no “strong” people around the president. And when there is dissent, Obama tries to crush it. Back in October, Politico reported that Obama’s advisers urged him to deal with Syria more aggressively, but the president refused to listen to advice. Now, the administration has been forced to acquiesce to Russian demands that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad remain in power. Additionally, Russian airstrikes, which have proved to be far more effective than U.S. strikes, continue to stomp on the Obama administration’s foreign policy objectives.

“You know, the president is quoted as having said at one point to his staff, ‘I can do every one of your jobs better than you can,'” Gates told Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s Morning Joe, on Tuesday.

While Gates ostensibly appeared on Morning Joe to promote his new book on leadership, he veered off into discussing the president’s ability to govern effectively. In the current White House, Gates said that the greatest problem is the inability to develop and implement a strategy.

In a separate interview with Business Insider, Gates said that Obama’s biggest foreign policy achievement, namely the Iran nuclear deal, is likely to fall flat on its face, in that it will not cause Tehran to cease support for terror groups across the Middle East.

COMMENT:  Well, there goes Gates's White House dinner invitation.  And, to think, he'd already had his pants pressed.  Gates has always been known as a straight shooter, and here he shoots very straight.  Obama is the classic, inexperienced politician who started to believe his own press clippings.  We see the result.  He'll be gone, and we'll be left with a train wreck.

January 21, 2016       Permalink

REALITY INTERVENES – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:  Jobless claims have risen once more.  Add to this the stumbling stock market.  Are we back to the bad old days?  From the Washington Times: 

More people are applying for unemployment insurance, a first sign of weakness in a part of the labor market that has been running red-hot in recent months.

New applications for unemployment benefits rose to 293,000 in the second full week of 2016, the Department of Labor reported Thursday morning, continuing a recent upward trend. That was the highest number for jobless claims since July.

Economists had expected jobless claims to drop from an unrevised 284,000 to 275,000, and halt the recent upward movement, according to economists polled by Bloomberg.

The four-week moving average for jobless claims rose by 6,500 to 285,000. The average was the highest since April.

COMMENT:  We'll need further samplings to get a closer read on things, but if companies start laying off large numbers of employees we could be in for a very bumpy ride in 2016.  That should help the Republicans in the election, if the Republicans remember to help themselves.

January 21,  2016     Permalink